With the BJP sweeping Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, and making major inroads into the north east with a strong showing in Manipur, the prospects of Prime Minister Narendra Modi returning to power at the Centre have become more evident, say experts.
While the majority of experts say the 2019 election should be smooth sailing for Modi, there are a few who maintain that a lot could happen over the next two years.
Praveen Rai, political analyst at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, called the assembly elections in the five states "a mid-term appraisal for the Central government".
"After this mandate, it is now going to be a cakewalk for the BJP, not only to retain what they won in 2014, but to even improve on that," Rai said.
On the other hand, political analyst Ashok Malik sounded a note of caution. He said the return to power in 2019 will not be as easy as it seems.
"There will be serious challenges before the BJP government in Uttar Pradesh to fulfil the major promises it made to people, including loan waiver to the farmers. In addition, it has to look after the promises it made earlier (during Lok Sabha election in 2014). So coming back to power in 2019 will not be easy," Malik said.
Political commentator and columnist Neerja Chowdhury asserted that the latest poll results have improved Modi's chances as "his credibility and image are as strong - may be even stronger - as they were in 2014". At the same time, she maintained, there were still two years to go during which a lot could happen. Chowdhury pointed out that the opposition was not able to withstand the momentum of the Modi juggernaut in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. "If you go by the Bihar story, two major parties buried their differences and came together to fight the BJP... Opposition will have to close ranks in state after state and find a common leader if they want to take on Modi," she said. Chowdhury added that if BSP chief Mayawati and Samajwadi Party leader and Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav had come together in Uttar Pradesh, they may have been able to give the BJP a tough fight.
Maintaining that the demonetisation issue clicked big time with the voters of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, Rai said it would be difficult for the opposition to regroup against the BJP to open a front against it in the next two years, before the Lok Sabha election.
"With this (assembly election) result, the opposition has no issue left. Now all parties opposed to the BJP will have to form a 'mahagathbandan' (grand alliance). However, till that happens, BJP will gain more momentum," Rai said. Echoing Rai, Chowdhury said the BJP had managed to reach areas where it did not exist. "It is making inroads in north east India.. Manipur is a big success story for the BJP. I do not know whether they will form a government there but they have a great showing," Chowdhury said.
The BJP swept Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand while it was in a neck-and-neck fight with the Congress in Manipur and Goa. However, the BJP has staked its claim to form governments in all four states. In Punjab, the party, which is in alliance with Shiromani Akali Dal, suffered a humiliating defeat.
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Modi favourite for 2019 Lok Sabha elections: US experts
Washington, Mar 14: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emerged as a clear favourite for the 2019 general elections after the BJP's landslide victory in assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, top US experts on India have said.
While one of the expert noted that the electoral results of the just concluded Assembly polls in five states show that the 2014 Lok Sabha election results were not an aberration, another noted that Modi would continue to lead India after 2019.
The Assembly elections do not signal much of a change. The Uttar Pradesh election results showed that the 2014 general elections were not an "aberration". Same is the case with Punjab, Adam Ziegfeld, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the George Washington University said.
"It was a big win for the BJP. Its candidate won with much larger margin of victory than compared to the two previous winners - BSP and Samajwadi Party," he said. Modi has been established by this election as the "clear and favourite winner" for the 2019 elections, Sadanand Dhume, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute said. "Modi is the front runner (for 2019)," he said.
Irfan Nooruddin, a professor at the Walsh School of Foreign Service at the Georgetown University predicted that in 2019, the BJP is unlikely to be get a simple majority and Modi would rather be heading a coalition government. BJP is running a disciplines election campaign state-by-state, while the Opposition fails, he said.
The party does not do good in a state where it faces a direct opposition. BJP is beatable if the Opposition comes together, Nooruddin said, adding that the party gains where it faces a fragmented opposition and in 2019, anti-incumbency would kick in. In this election, the BJP played the cast card while pretending to be above it, Dhume who was in Uttar Pradesh during the elections, said.
"Demonetisation is extremely popular. Indian people who have suffered themselves in the wake of the policy, it won their heart and mind. Here is this man of sincerity who struck a principled blow to corrupt and the rich," he said referring to his conversation with people in the state.
Dhume, however, noted that Modi after this historic victory in Uttar Pradesh is unlikely to go for the kind of economic reforms the private sector would like to have. India is going to bump up its economic reforms that directly effects the people of the country, said Alyssa Ayres, senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. Picking up four governments in states all across India, and having future prospects, it is unlikely to have an impact on foreign policy. Like demonetisation #IamNewIndia is the pledge that the Prime Minister is asking citizens to be part of his new India campaign.
BJP will now pick up a lot of seats in Rajya Sabha which would help the ruling party to carry out its long pending reform like the land acquisition reform and labor reforms. They would tart picking up seats is early as 2018. BJP is looking at 2019 and beyond. PTI