Volcanoes Go Quiet Before They Erupt: Study

    • PTI
    • Publish Date: Jun 24 2016 4:56PM
    • |
    • Updated Date: Aug 5 2016 4:54PM
Volcanoes Go Quiet Before They Erupt: Study
The duration of the silence can indicate the level of energy that will be released when eruption occurs. Longer quiet periods mean a bigger bang. Photo: Corbis

Periods of seismic quiet occur immediately before volcanic eruptions and can thus be used to forecast an impending eruption for restless volcanoes, scientists say.


When dormant volcanoes are about to erupt, they show some predictive characteristics - seismic activity beneath the volcano starts to increase, gas escapes through the vent, or the surrounding ground starts to deform.

However, until now, there has not been a way to forecast eruptions of more restless volcanoes because of the constant seismic activity and gas and steam emissions.

Diana Roman, a volcanologist at Carnegie Institution for Science (CIS) in the US, working with a team of scientists from Pennsylvania State University, Oxford University, the University of Iceland found that periods of seismic quiet occur immediately before eruptions and can thus be used to forecast an impending eruption for restless volcanoes.

The duration of the silence can indicate the level of energy that will be released when eruption occurs. Longer quiet periods mean a bigger bang.

The team monitored a sequence of eruptions at the Telica Volcano in Nicaragua in 2011. It is a so-called stratovolcano, with a classic-looking cone built up by many layers of lava and ash.

They started monitoring Telica in 2009 with various instruments and by 2011 they had a comprehensive network within four kilometres of the volcano's summit.

The 2011 eruptive event was a month-long series of small to moderate ash explosions. Prior to the eruption, there was a lack of deep seismicity or deformation, and small changes in sulphur dioxide gas emissions, indicating that the eruption was not driven by fresh magma.

Instead, the eruption likely resulted from the vents being sealed off so that gas could not escape. This resulted in an increase in the pressure that eventually caused the explosions. 

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